New Builds in the UK: Promised vs Reality

By taking a deep dive into recently released data on Local Authority new builds, Bird & Co has uncovered where the government has exceeded, met, or fallen short of its promise to tackle the housing shortage.

The UK housing crisis has reached a critical juncture. With affordability plunging and demand soaring, the government has unveiled a two-pronged strategy: significant funding commitments through the Affordable Homes Programme (2021–26) and rigorous tracking of actual new-build completions in Local Authorities across the UK.

By juxtaposing “promised” allocations with on-the-ground delivery, we gain a clear picture of where the pipeline is flowing smoothly, and where it is bottlenecked.

In this blog, we will be unpacking the government’s plans, taking a look at the promises made for each locality, and comparing this to the number of homes within the scheme that have been started and/or completed. In doing so, we can identify regions and authorities that have hit, exceeded, or fallen short of their targets.

We will then explore underlying factors - funding timelines, planning delays, rural vs urban dynamics - that influence the performance of said schemes.

What Are the Government’s Plans to Tackle the Lack of Available Housing in the UK?

The Affordable Homes Programme (2021–26) is the UK government’s flagship grant scheme that commits billions in funding through contractual agreements to deliver 180,000 new affordable homes by March 2026.

According to Housing.org.uk, the programme plans to deliver:

• 50% of homes at discounted rent, including affordable rent and social rent in areas of high affordability challenge.
• 50% of affordable home ownership including a majority of shared ownership.
• 10% of homes to provide supported housing.
• 10% of homes in rural areas.
• 25% of homes delivered through Strategic Partnerships using MMC.

What Are the Key Measures the Government Are Looking at?

To bridge the gap between aspiration and reality, the government relies on two complementary metrics:

• Promised Allocations (Affordable Homes Programme 2021–26): total grant agreements in place by 31 March 2023, split between Affordable Home Ownership, Affordable Rent, and Social Rent, with further regional and scheme-type detail.
• Delivered Completions (LAHS 2022–23): every new-build affordable home that achieved practical completion or sale transfer between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2023.

Where Are New Build Properties Most Prevalent in the UK?

As a stand-alone piece, we wanted to start by looking at the total number of new builds that have been started and completed between the 2022-2023 financial period.

The total units include all of the following building types, whether they be owned by local authority, by private registered providers, or non-registered providers:

• Social Rent: Rented homes let at target social-housing rates, typically set well below market levels and managed by local authorities or registered providers.
• Affordable Rent: Rented homes let at up to 80% of local market rent (including service charges), offered by local authorities or housing associations.
• Intermediate Rent: “Mid-market” rental products (including Rent to Buy or London Living Rent), priced between social and market rent.
• Affordable Home Ownership: Homes for sale at below‐market prices, including various shared-ownership schemes (e.g. older-persons’ shared ownership, HOLD) and Rent to Buy where tenure converts to ownership.
• Shared Ownership: a subset of Affordable Home Ownership. Leaseholders buy an initial equity stake (often 25–75 %) then pay rent on the remainder, with staircasing rights to increase ownership over time.
• First Homes: Newly introduced discounted‐sale homes (minimum 30% off market) sold under Exception-Site policy; counted as Affordable Home Ownership.

10 Locations with the Largest Number of New Builds Started as of 2022-23 Financial Year

10 Locations with the Largest Number of New Builds Completed as of 2022-23 Financial Year

Have the New Build Allocations Met the Promised Figures?

Once we’d looked at these raw figures, we wanted to review the difference between the promised figures as of March 2023 and what has been delivered within the 2022 to 2023 financial year.

Focusing purely on the Allocated Home Ownership figures to gain insight into the picture for aspiring homeowners, we subtracted delivered completions from promised allocations for each geography, which produced a clear metric:

• Positive: Homes still in the pipeline or delayed beyond the reporting period.
• Zero: Delivery matched commitments precisely.
• Negative: Projects finished ahead of schedule or exceeded original targets.

Here, we’ll explore the areas where expectations have been met or exceeded, as well as fallen short:

Where Have New Build Allocations Exceeded Expectations?

Where Have New Build Allocations Fallen Short of Expectations?

Why Have New Build Allocations Not Been Met in Some Locations?

Funding Timelines

Even after grant agreements are signed, there is often a gap before funds are drawn down and contracts awarded. Delays in Homes England disbursements or in securing matching local contributions can push schemes past the 31 March cutoff, leaving promised homes still on the drawing board.

Planning Delays

Securing detailed planning permission - and satisfying pre-commencement conditions like ecology surveys or highways agreements - can add months to a project. In high-demand areas, backlogs and local objections only lengthen the process, preventing completed builds within the reporting year.

Rural vs Urban Dynamics

Small rural schemes face tougher economics; higher per-unit infrastructure costs, limited developer interest, and tighter landscape protections, all of which slow down starts. Urban projects, while easier to site, face intense competition for land, driving up costs and putting pressure on delivery schedules.

Provider Capacity & Market Conditions

Associations and smaller developers are grappling with labour shortages, material price spikes, and financing constraints. When partners defer or phase developments to manage risk, units promised under the programme are pushed into later years.

Land Availability & Acquisition

Even fully funded schemes stall if land cannot be assembled quickly. Protracted valuations, negotiations with multiple owners, and complications over green-belt or contaminated sites often delay site possession, and push new-build completions beyond the target period.

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Data Sources

• Local Authority Housing Statistics data returns for 2022 to 2023
• Local Authority Housing Statistics (LAHS) Guidance
• Local Authority District to County and Unitary Authority (April 2023)
• Affordable Homes Programme 2021 to 2026 summary
• 2021 to 2026 Affordable Homes programme Summary: end of March 2023

Methodology

The “promised vs. reality” analysis drew raw completions and starts data directly from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government LAHS tables I & J, then enriched each Local Authority with its county from the ONS boundary list.

After aggregating Affordable Home Ownership starts and completions by “Minimum Geography,” we merged in contracted allocations from the Affordable Homes Programme summary and computed the difference between allocated and delivered units per area.

Rankings of allocation vs. started and completed properties were found, ensuring like-for-like tenure and temporal alignment in order to identify the areas where what has been delivered has met/exceeded/fallen short of what was promised.

Please note, all interpretations of the data are that of the Bird & Co researchers.